What next for Federer after the #20?

Roger Federer became the first male tennis player to reach 20 major titles by defeating Marin Čilić for a record-equaling sixth Australian Open championship. Following Federer's straight-sets win over Čilić in last year's Wimbledon final, the Australian final must have exceeded the expectation.

Following the lopsided first set, Čilić did well to regroup himself in the second set. He did exactly what he needed to do, being able to hold his serve and use the opportunities presented by Federer in the tiebreak. After Federer took the third set and led the fourth with a break, it looked like all Federer would need was cruising through his service games. Yet Čilić was finally able to break Federer's serve to level the set and with another break he could take the match into the fifth set.

The momentum was on Čilić's side after the fourth set and he had break points again in the opening game of the fifth set. Federer save those break points and immediately broke the Croat's serve. As the set progressed, the momentum got back to Federer's side and he took the final set 6-1 equal Roy Emerson and Novak Djokovic at six Australian Open men's singles titles with his 20th major title overall.

With the 20th major now in Federer's bag, the question is, what next? The hot questions for the upcoming months are if he claims the No. 1 ranking and if he plays on clay?

Will Federer claim the No. 1 ranking?

Following the Australian Open, Roger Federer trails the World No. 1 Rafael Nadal by mere 155 points. Neither player has points to defend before the last week of February. Nadal is defending 300 points from the Acapulco final and he's scheduled to return to courts again in Acapulco. Federer is defending only 45 points from Dubai's round of 16. Federer has not signed to play in Dubai this year, although he may still enter with a wild card.

If Nadal, injured at the Australian Open, didn't play Acapulco or didn't reach the semifinals there, Federer would automatically become the No. 1. If Nadal played Acapulco and won the 500 title, Federer could become the No. 1 by winning the Dubai 500 title, assuming he'd take the wild card.

Rankings weren't Federer's priority last year as he skipped the entire clay season and skipped the Paris Masters, very much handing the year-end No. 1 ranking to Nadal. But now that he's so close to the No. 1 ranking, at the age of 36, it might be too attractive an opportunity to pass.

Federer could become the oldest player to reach the No. 1 ranking, a record currently held by Andre Agassi who was the No. 1 at the age of 33. I think that is a record worth chasing for Federer now that he's so close to it. There is still a month to Dubai; he should have recovered from the Australian Open by then. Dubai has been a happy hunting ground for Federer; although he lost on the round of 16 last year, he's a seven-time champion there.

Should Federer play on clay?

Last year after winning the Indian Wells-Miami double, Federer took a break from the tour and later announced he will not play at the French Open, starting to prepare for the grass season. That appears to have been a smart decision as he won Wimbledon without dropping a set. As that worked last year, the question is if it makes sense for Federer to play on clay this year either.

Now that he's achieved the 20th major title, Federer should have less pressure to succeed at Wimbledon, especially as he won the record-breaking eighth title last year. If he wants to have one last good run at Roland Garros, there will be no better time for it, he's not getting any younger.

Federer has not made it past the quarterfinals at Roland Garros since 2012. Then again, he's playing better now than in those years. With question marks over Wawrinka's, Djokovic's and even Nadal's fitness, the draw could be open for Federer although he's at his most vulnerable on that surface.

I think this year could be Federer's last chance for a good run at Roland Garros and he should play clay tournaments. Even if he could play great tennis beyond this year, this year could present the most open draw given the current state of the tour.

I'd like to see Federer skipping Miami, especially if he plays Dubai, and measuring his clay performance at Monte Carlo. If he's good enough on clay, he should continue on clay and play either Madrid or Rome before Roland Garros. And if his chances for Roland Garros don't look good, then he could skip it and start preparing for the grass season. But I'd like to see Federer giving clay a try this year, just to see how well he could do on that surface with his current game.

That being said, I'm rather expecting Federer to follow a successful formula from last year, skipping clay to prepare well for grass. At the age of 36, he must be careful with scheduling. Winning Roland Garros is a long shot whereas he's the favorite at Wimbledon, and the physical demands of clay tennis may compromise his preparation for the grass season.

How long can Federer keep on winning slams?

Federer has won three of the last five majors and there are not many players who can beat him when he's on top of his game, despite his age. If he stays healthy and in form, he's the favorite to win at Wimbledon next July. The US Open is possible for him, although it will be ten years since his last title in New York this year. Last year the US Open was the slower of the two hardcourt majors, making it the more difficult one for Federer.

Smart scheduling allowed Federer to start the 2018 season fresh after the successful 2017. The same can't be said about Nadal who played a heavier schedule and has a more physical playing style. That being said, I'm not sure how much longer Federer can continue this great run he's been having since the start of last year.

Since his injury comeback last year, Federer has shown so much love for tennis that I believe it overcomes any desire to walk away after a great season, like 2018 may be. I believe Federer will keep on playing as long as he can contend for major titles. I believe Federer will still have few more years of great chances at Wimbledon. But the physical demands make it more difficult for the ageing Federer to win more slams outside grass, although the Australian Open showed it's still possible. And given his age, any injury can end Federer's flight on top of the game.

I think one or two more majors is still possible for Federer, even three if he won two more this season. He can still outplay anybody but he must stay healthy and fit. Though if some dominant player or players emerge from those in their mid-to-late 20s' physical peak, like Djokovic in the first half of this decade, then the days of Federer winning slams may be over.

Does alpine combined have a future?

The future of alpine combined has been questioned several times this decade. With skiers specializing more and more in speed or technical disciplines, a discipline requiring all-round skills makes them less sense.

In theory, alpine combined is a great discipline, measuring the skiers' all-round skills. Speed and technical skills are well-balanced in the format of one downhill and one slalom run.

However, alpine combined is not in a good health. The risks of downhill are keeping some of the best technical skiers away from the discipline. The need to complete the downhill training runs before the combined races further discourages technical specialists to participate in combined when the schedule is already taxing. There have been combined races of super-G and slalom that don't require training runs, though that format is also less neutral, favoring technical specialists.

Alexis Pinturault gave up his hopes of winning the World Cup discipline title in combined in order to get time for training. Marcel Hirscher, world gold and silver medalist in the discipline, has competed only rarely in the discipline in the World Cup, mostly only when it's been a combined of super-G and slalom, requiring no training runs.

For speed specialists the barrier to enter combined races is lower. They need to participate in the training anyway for the downhill races. Combined gives them one more run to train for the downhill race and the risks are low in slalom. Still, despite speed specialists making up most of the field in combined races, those races often end up being won by a technical specialist.

The last two World Championship combined races have been won by Marcel Hirscher and Luca Aerni, both finishing 30th in the downhill leg and getting to start the slalom leg in conditions where the course deteriorated rapidly. The reversed starting order for the top 30 gives an advantage for those slalom specialists who finish the speed leg barely inside the top 30. Not only they are better slalom skiers than the speed specialists but they also get to have their run in the best conditions.

The combined race in Bormio in December was combined at its best. Alexis Pinturault, probably the best all-round skier in men's side, made big progress in slalom to win, though the conditions allowed also the best downhill skiers to challenge him. The second combined race of the winter in Wengen was more like combined at its worst. The winner Victor Muffat-Jeandet was 27th and the second-place Pavel Trikhichev 29th in the downhill leg, yet the best downhill skiers couldn't challenge them on the deteriorating slalom course.

The starting order wouldn't be such a big issue if there were well-capable slalom skiers in the top 10 of the downhill. If that was the case, winning from outside the top 20 would be almost impossible. The conditions wouldn't anymore change that much during the top ten and they would decide the victory. However, there are hardly any skiers on the men's tour who can score points in both downhill and slalom, let alone be top-10 contenders in both disciplines.

All-round talent in women's side justifies combined

While the men's tour lacks all-round skiers, the women's tour has more all-round talent. The likes of Lindsey Vonn and Tina Maze are recent examples of skiers winning races in all disciplines. This season Mikaela Shiffrin became the latest skier to have won World Cup races in both slalom and downhill, as well as in giant slalom and combined. Michelle Gisin is another young skier who has shown skills both in speed and technical disciplines, making her a strong combined skier.

If men's combined comes down to who is least bad in his worse discipline, women's combined is more about who is the best in two disciplines like it should be. If you barely make the top 30 in the downhill leg, you probably can't win a women's combined, there's enough slalom talent in the downhill top 10. With hardly any all-round skiers on the men's tour, it's justifiable to question the existence of alpine combined. Yet the all-round talent on the women's tour justifies its existence.

Should combined stay in the schedule?

The future of alpine combined has often been questioned this decade. I think it belongs to the World Championships and the Olympics, just like decathlon and heptathlon in athletics. The Worlds and the Olympics have no overall winner, the combined winner is closest to that.

Another thing is if combined should be featured in the World Cup and if it should have a crystal globe.

The World Cup already has an award for all-round skills, it's the overall crystal globe. However, the overall standings rather favor specializing and succeeding in two disciplines rather than consistent scoring in three or four. Alexis Pinturault is probably the best all-round skier on the men's tour, having finished on top of the combined standings four times in the five previous seasons. Yet he has never finished higher than third in the overall standings.

If there were more combined races in the schedule, it might encourage skiers to improve their all-round skills. With more combined races, there would be more races awarding points towards the overall title. Then again, there was an increase in the number of combined races when the current super combined format was introduced, yet most skiers concentrated on speed or technical disciplines with little focus on combined. And without true all-round skiers, combined isn't very attractive.

As for the discipline title in combined, I think it could make sense if there were more combined races, like at least five. It would reward all-round skills more than the overall title does. But right now with two races it doesn't make sense, as shown by Pinturault prioritizing training over racing for the title.

I wouldn't like combined to disappear completely. It can still provide some great races, more commonly on women's side. Though I'm afraid the sport is going into that direction. The FIS is pushing for more parallel races and you can't expand the schedule endlessly. I wouldn't be surprised to see alpine combined replaced by a parallel race at the Worlds and the Olympics in the future.