After a short preparation, Hirscher was only 17th in the slalom at Levi, though his four starts since then, he has achieved three wins and a third place. Norway's Aksel Lund Svindal, another skier returning from an injury, shares the overall lead with Hirscher. However, the rest of the season is more favorable for the technical specialist Hirscher with eight slalom and five giant slalom races remaining as opposed to six downhill and three super-G races remaining in the speed disciplines. Besides there will be three parallel races and two combined races.
The remaining schedule makes it difficult for Svindal to match Hirscher. It seems like the Norwegian Henrik Kristoffersen, currently nine points behind the leaders, will be Hirscher's biggest rival. The table below shows the projected final points based on the average points scores in each discipline so far this season.
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| Parallel and combined races not included. |
The table excludes the parallel races because of their unpredictable nature. Combined is excluded because no races in the discipline have taken place so far this season. Also, that is the projected points for the current top 10; skiers from outside might be inside the top 10 in the projected points, though hardly contend for the top positions.
History on Hirscher's side vs. Kristoffersen
The projected points show an advantage for Kristoffersen in the overall title race against Hirscher. However, there are many factors making Hirscher the favorite. Hirscher's 14th place at Levi brings down his average score in slalom; last season his worst result was a sixth place as he finished all other races in the top four.
That doesn't mean Kristoffersen can't outscore him in slalom. Kristoffersen won the 2015-16 slalom title ahead of Hirscher and won five slalom races last season as opposed to Hirscher winning only two. Though Hirscher is ahead of Kristoffersen in consistency. Besides, Hirscher is the better parallel racer, which may be decisive in this rivalry.
Although a win is missing so far this season, Kristoffersen is probably having his best season in GS. It's not easy to beat Hirscher in GS, though Kristoffersen can beat anybody else in GS. So far Kristoffersen has two second places and a fifth place. He needs to keep up his GS form to stay within a striking distance from Hirscher.
Kristoffersen needs to continue his good performances in GS and produce a season similar to 2015-16 in slalom to contend for the big crystal globe against Hirscher. That being said, Hirscher's consistently great performances are hard to match over the full season. Hirscher also has the benefit of being able to score points in super-G and combined, although he hasn't raced in super-G so far this season, probably as a precaution after the injury break. I'd expect to see him in some super-G races later this season if the title race requires it. On the other hand, Hirscher has never raced on the Bormio and Wengen downhill courses so he may not start in any combined race in this winter's World Cup.
If Hirscher stays fit, he's the favorite to win his seventh consecutive World Cup overall title. But I don't completely rule out Kristoffersen beating him if Kristoffersen can produce the best season of his career.
Speed specialists lack good giant slalom results
The two-time World Cup overall champion Aksel Lund Svindal shares the lead with Hirscher, though it seems like this season will follow the familiar storyline. The early season has had one speed race more than technical races and he's leading the overall standings, though he can't keep up with Hirscher as the remainder of the season will have four more technical races plus the three parallel races.
Svindal has had a great start for his campaign in downhill with a third place followed by two wins. His super-G hasn't been up there yet; despite top-10 finishes in all three races so far, he's yet to make the podium in super-G.
Two-time overall runner-up Kjetil Jansrud has usually had the same storyline in his seasons as the countryman Svindal. Once the season gets more tech-favoring, Jansrud's overall title challenge has dried up.
Jansrud is leading the super-G standings with a win and a second place from the North American races, though he also missed the points with his 35th-place finish in Val Gardena. Downhill has been less successful for the last season's downhill runner-up Jansrud, though his first podium with the second place in Val Gardena promoted him into third place in the discipline standings.
What Svindal and Jansrud need to keep their overall title campaign alive is strong results in both speed disciplines. And even then, the lack of good giant slalom results keeps them out of the title contention in the tech-favoring remainder of the season. Speed specialists who won the overall title traditionally had success also in GS, for example Svindal won the GS title on his way to the 2007 overall title. However, Svindal hasn't started in GS this season following his knee injuries while the 2010 Olympic silver medalist Jansrud has not qualified for the second run in his two GS starts this season.
The 2016 World Cup super-G champion Aleksander Aamodt Kilde might be the best candidate to end Ivica Kostelić and Marcel Hirscher's streak of seven overall titles for technical specialists since he's shown most promise of speed specialists in giant slalom in last seasons. He was able to score some points with the 26th place in the Beaver Creek GS, though didn't make the second run in Alta Badia. The new GS skis, closer to the pre-2012-spec skis, have not boosted speed specialists' GS performances as much as one might have hoped. That being said, sixth in the super-G and 15th in the downhill standings this season is not good enough for Kilde to contend for the overall title.
Pinturault needs consistency and another strong discipline
The Frenchman Alexis Pinturault may be the best all-round skier in the World Cup at the moment, as shown by wins in all disciplines but downhill and by finishing on top of the combined standings four times in the last five seasons. However, giant slalom is the only discipline where he's an absolute top contender and he's lacked the kind of consistency the likes of Hirscher, Svindal, and Jansrud have showed.
Although Pinturault has shown skills to match Hirscher's performances in giant slalom in last two seasons, inconsistency over the season has kept him from contending for the GS title. That seems to be the case also this season. He achieved an impressive victory in Val-d'Isère, though ninth and 12th places from the other races aren't enough to contend for the discipline title and also cost him in the overall title battle.
Pinturault can be a winner on a good day also in slalom and super-G, however he is very inconsistent in those disciplines. He finished as high as fifth in the Beaver Creek super-G, though he was only 27th in his other super-G start in Val Gardena. Pinturault started his slalom season with a promising eighth place at Levi and he was ninth after the first run in Val-d'Isère but didn't finish the second run.
Pinturault may be the best all-round skier in the World Cup, though the points system rewards finishing high in races. Pinturault needs another discipline where he's a frontrunner. Slalom offers better chances for him to score points. It's still a better discipline than super-G for him. Besides, slalom races outnumber super-G races by ten to six.
142 points may not be a totally impossible gap at this point of the season. Pinturault can score good points in the combined and parallel races, though he'd need to start beating Hirscher and Kristoffersen in slalom and giant slalom, which is a big task. To contend for the overall title in the future, he needs more consistency, and he needs to reach his maximum in slalom consistently to score high points.
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