2015 Alpine Skiing World Cup title battles: overall, downhill, and super-G

The last three weeks of the Alpine Skiing World Cup are here. Both men and women have eight races remaining, two in each discipline. This is a week of speed events; men race in Kvitfjell and women in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

Women's overall

Women's overall title battle seems like the more interesting overall battle. Tina Maze's huge lead in the overall standings has decreased to 44 points over Anna Fenninger. Maze didn't really dominate any discipline at any time this season. But her consistency in all four disciplines build her points lead. She seemed to run away from defending champion Fenninger who doesn't do slalom. But the downhill of St. Moritz feels like where Fenninger's World Cup campaign really started; second place after mediocre downhill performances until then. And after that she has been in top 2 in all her starts but the World Championship combined where she was fourth.

Actually, also Maze seems to be in a great form right now. Like Fenninger, she won two gold and one silver medal at the World Championships, and last weekend she was second in both races. But, it was Fenninger who finished ahead of her in those races. And in giant slalom she looks unable to match Fenninger. Of course, Maze is a capable slalom skier but even good slalom results may not be enough when Fenninger is beating her in other disciplines. Given their respective form, Fenninger may overtake Maze in points already in the speed events in Garmisch this weekend and keep the lead in the technical events in Åre before the Finals week.

Women's super-G

Fenninger didn't only take a huge leap towards the overall leader Maze in Bansko but she also took over the super-G World Cup lead from Lindsey Vonn and leads now with 32 points. Fenninger has been very consistent this season; she's finished every super-G and after the eighth place of the first race, she had three second places in a row. After winning the super-G at the World Championships, she won her first super-G on the World Cup Tour last weekend.

Vonn's season in super-G has been great too. She has two wins in the World Cup, one second, and one third place but also one retirement. Her recent form leaves some questions. Her only medal at the Worlds was bronze in the super-G won by Fenninger and last weekend in Bansko she was third in the super-G also won by Fenninger. But I feel this title can go either way. Fenninger has some lead and if she beats Vonn in Garmisch this weekend, I believe she will go to win the super-G title. But if Vonn beats Fenninger in Garmisch, then I think it will be a fifty-fifty situation before the final race. And of course, Fenninger can secure the title already in Garmisch, even though it is unlikely. Even if she won, Vonn should be out of the top 8. And if Vonn retired or were 20th at best, Fenninger should be second.

Women's downhill

Vonn has a 79-point lead over Fenninger in the downhill standings. She has a realistic chance of securing the title this weekend. If she wins, Fenninger must be second to keep the title battle open until the final race. If she is second, Fenninger must be third. If she is third, Fenninger must be fourth, etc. But even third places in the remaining two races wouldn't be enough if Fenninger won both races.

Vonn has three wins from this season whereas Fenninger has none. But just like in super-G, the recent races have gone better for Fenninger. Fenninger was second in the latest World Cup downhill in St. Moritz and in the World Championship downhill. Vonn was 23rd and 5th in those races. Vonn probably needs to do better than that to win the downhill title. If Fenninger is second in the remaining two races, Vonn needs at least a fifth and a sixth place or something like that. But Vonn is surely the favorite here; she is the best downhill skier on women's side.

Men's overall

Men's overall World Cup has been a battle between Marcel Hirscher and Kjetil Jansrud. Jansrud started his season well and was in top 2 in all speed races before Christmas, winning four of six. Since then, he has made the podium only twice, win in the Kitzbühel downhill and third place in the Saalbach super-G. That drop in form has very much dropped him out of contention for the overall World Cup title.

Hirscher is having a great giant slalom season. The only World Cup giant slalom he didn't won was in Beaver Creek where he was third, on the same slope where he suffered another defeat in giant slalom this season at the World Championships. In slalom he hasn't been quite as good. At times he has been great in slalom but he hasn't really stood out in that discipline. Some poor slalom races by his standards gave Jansrud some chances in the overall title battle but Jansrud couldn't have the results to stay in the battle.

Hirscher's lead is 188 points which is quite impossible for Jansrud to catch. If Jansrud won both races in Kvitfjell this weekend, he would overtake Hirscher in the overall points. But then Hirscher would have two technical races in the following weekend to take the lead again and build some gap. The battle for the 3rd place is almost more interesting with Alexis Pinturault, Felix Neureuther, Matthias Mayer, Dominik Paris, and Fritz Dopfer being within only 83 points. I will write more about that 3rd-place battle in next weeks.

Men's downhill

Men's downhill title seemed to be going to Jansrud after his great start to the season, wins in the first two races and second place in the third downhill. Dominik Paris seemed like his main rival but unable to match Jansrud. But Jansrud has struggled after the Christmas break; only one downhill podium, a win in Kitzbühel. In Garmisch last weekend, Jansrud even missed the top 15; a result which would award no points at the Word Cup Finals. But Paris has also been struggling lately and hasn't been able to benefit from Jansrud's mediocre results.

Austrians Hannes Reichelt and Matthias Mayer seem like the main rivals for Jansrud now. Reichelt is 84 points behind Jansrud and Mayer is 113 points behind. They both have a win and a third place from the last two downhill races, i.e. 160 points. Jansrud got only 40 points in those races. So, Jansrud needs to perform better to not lose the downhill World Cup he's lead all season long. And I believe he has the potential for that. So many times he's been good in training but mediocre in races. He needs to bring his best to races now. Also, Paris is actually one point ahead of Mayer in the standings but his recent results don't imply he might have what it takes to win the downhill title this season; he rather struggles to even make it into the top 3 of the final points.

While Jansrud's lead has decreased, he has a decent chance to secure the downhill title in his home race in Kvitfjell this weekend. He needs 17 points more than Reichelt and can lose 12 points to Paris and Mayer. A win would secure the title, no matter how others perform.

Men's super-G

Just like downhill, super-G has seemed since December like Jansrud's title to lose. And just like in downhill, Paris seemed to be his main rival. But like in downhill, both Jansrud and Paris seem to have a dip in their super-G form. And with a win two weeks ago in Saalbach, Mayer joined the battle for the super-G title.

Luckily for Jansrud, super-G seems like his best discipline right now. But third place two weeks ago in Saalbach is his only podium in super-G after the New Year. Paris has three super-G podiums from this season, including a win in Kitzbühel. But given his poor form recently, I doubt he can catch Jansrud's 73-point lead. Mayer is 102 points behind Jansrud but given his recent great form in speed disciplines, I think he has better chances than Paris. But I think Jansrud's lead should be too much for Mayer; Jansrud seems still too good to lose over 100 points in two races, unless Mayer won them both.

And like in downhill, Jansrud has a chance to secure also the super-G title in Kvitfjell this weekend. He needs 28 points more than Paris and can lose by one point to Mayer. If Jansrud won the Kvitfjell super-G, Paris would need a second place to retain a small chance for the super-G title.

Technical disciplines

I will write about the technical disciplines before next week's technical events in Kranjska Gora (men) and Åre (women). And to not miss the remaining races, add the World Cup calendar with start times to Google Calendar.

2014-15 Alpine Skiing World Cup approaching the halfway

The 2014-15 Alpine Skiing season is approaching its halfway, which also means classic races: men in Adelboden, Wengen, and Kitzbühel and women in Cortina d'Ampezzo and St. Moritz. Here I review some skiers' performances this season.

Men

The men's overall World Cup is becoming a two-man race between three-time defending champion Marcel Hirscher and Kjetil Jansrud. That is like the title fights between Hirscher and Svindal in previous years, Hirscher collecting big points from the technical events and the Norwegian collecting big points from the speed events. Hirscher took the overall lead with his Zagreb slalom win and also the projected final points show he is on the way to the overall title. Of disciplines, giant slalom has been better than slalom for him this winter. The tougher competition in slalom and last years' best giant slalom skier Ted Ligety's weaker performances may have accounted for that. In giant slalom, Hirscher leads the World Cup by 74 points ahead of Ligety whereas in the slalom World Cup, he is on the second place but only four points behind the leader Felix Neureuther.

Kjetil Jansrud has been the best speed skier since last February's Olympics where he won gold in super-G and bronze in downhill. This winter he has dominated speed disciplines, four wins and only one missed podium in seven speed races. While his leads in downhill and super-G standings aren't impossible to catch, I can't see anybody with the consistency needed to beat Jansrud for those titles.

As for the overall title fight, it will be tight as long as those two equally dominate their parade disciplines. Combined races can play a big role here. Hirscher will probably do only the Kitzbühel combined as instead of downhill it has super-G. But he has a great record from SG+SL combined, always in top 5. Jansrud will probably do both Wengen and Kitzbühel but he doesn't have as good a record from combined as Hirscher has. Still, his best combined result is from last winter when he was fourth in the Olympic combined, so he has potential. Another chance for Jansrud to gain points on Hirscher is in giant slalom. Unlike Hirscher, Jansrud has a decent third discipline. He has been three times in top 15 this winter but if he could improve to top 10, it would help him. He is a skier with potential in giant slalom as seen in around 2010 when giant slalom was his best discipline and he won Olympic silver in it. Of course, also Hirscher can try to get some points from super-G but he races in super-G very seldom.

Felix Neureuther leads the slalom World Cup, despite the back problems he has had. I don't think he is as good a slalom skier as second-placed Hirscher but Neureuther has been more consistent and finished all slaloms on podium. I think this title will depend on Hirscher's form. If Hirscher can bring his best, he will inevitably win it but if he has bad races and Neureuther remains consistent, then Felix has a huge chance for the title. Giant slalom has been more difficult for him this season than last winter when he even won a giant slalom in Adelboden. But even with his current results, he is well in contention to make the podium in the overall World Cup.

One of his main contenders for the third place in the overall is his countryman Fritz Dopfer who is consistently having good results in slalom and giant slalom. But Dopfer still needs a bit something to win races. Another contender for those Germans is the speed specialist Dominik Paris. While he is yet to win a race this winter, he has four podium finishes in seven speed races. Moreover, he is still young and I expect him to win discipline titles in downhill and super-G in the future. But I can't see him ever as a contender for the overall title; he would need a third discipline in his repertoire.

Another still young skier whose results I have been pleased with is Matthias Mayer. His downhill Olympic gold seemed like a one-race wonder but the results after it are making it justified. While he is "only" sixth and fourth in downhill and super-G standings and yet to win a race this winter, his two second places show he is a real deal. He is already ready to win races as the Olympic downhill and the final downhill in Lenzerheide last year showed but he isn't yet ready to fight for the discipline World Cup titles. But in the future I can see him as a strong contender for the World Cup titles in speed disciplines. He also has some giant slalom skills as shown by the sixth place at the Olympics, so I think he could be a Jansrud-like overall title contender in the future; strong in speed disciplines, decent in giant slalom.

Ted Ligety and Alexis Pinturault are skiers often mentioned in the overall title speculations. I am losing my faith in Ligety ever winning it. This is yet another winter when he can't do much outside giant slalom. He can have some good slalom runs but finishing two slalom runs has been difficult for him this winter. He won the World Championship super-G two years ago but he doesn't seem able to be a consistent top skier in super-G. And this winter he has been having a mediocre giant slalom season by his own standards. A win and two second places isn't bad but he is already 74 points behind the leader Hirscher. He must start beating Hirscher to successfully defend his giant slalom World Cup title.

Pinturault is a skier who I think has the skills needed to win the overall World Cup. He can be a top skier in slalom, giant slalom, super-G, and combined. Who knows if he even becomes a real all-round skier doing also downhill? But he needs consistency. Giant slalom has been his best discipline this winter and he also has a podium from super-G. But he has finished only one of the four slaloms, wasting lots of points. Aside from a slim chance for the giant slalom title, his aim for the rest of the season must be just to win races and secure top 3 in the giant slalom World Cup. He is still a young skier so he has years left to battle for the overall title.

And few words about my favourite Carlo Janka. After some worse seasons, at the end of the last season, it looked like he is breaking back into the top 10. But his performances haven't really improved from last winter. Actually, his downhill results have been worse than last winter but his giant slalom has improved from the last winter; in the 7th-place finish in Beaver Creek, he had the fastest second run. The promising thing in that is that the World Championships are held on the same slope. Maybe his best chance for glory this winter will be there. Also, I am eagerly looking forward to the Wengen weekend where he has an impressive record of one win in both downhill and combined as well as a total of six podiums in 11 starts.

Women

On women's side, Tina Maze seems to be on the way to the overall title. She is consistently getting good results in all disciplines. Still, it may be hard for her to win any discipline titles as she doesn't dominate any discipline, almost all disciplines have some better skiers than her.

Last year's overall champion Anna Fenninger seems to be in trouble in her attempt to defend the title. She doesn't do slalom like Maze does plus she is ahead of Maze only in giant slalom points. Giant slalom looks like her best chance to win a World Cup title this winter. In the overall World Cup she seems to be on the way to the second place. She is currently third, behind Mikaela Shiffrin but there are lots of speed races remaining which should get her past Shiffrin, as seen in the projected standings.

Lindsey Vonn has made a great comeback. She is back dominating downhill and also doing well in super-G. The super-G points don't tell a lot yet because there has been only two races. Because of the retirement in Val-d'Isere, Vonn is only on sixth place. But her second place in Lake Louise impressed me so much that I expect her to be a contender for the title, like I expect the current points leader and last year's champion Lara Gut to be. As Vonn hasn't done technical events, she has no chance for the overall title though. Currently she is seventh but like in Fenninger's case, the speed races will bring her close to a top 3 finish.

Giant slalom looks like the most interesting title fight. The top 6 are within 100 points from the leader Eva-Maria Brem. One of those is Mikaela Shiffrin who won her first giant slalom in the first race of the season in Sölden. After that she didn't get good results in either giant slalom or even in his parade discipline slalom. But now that she has found her form, she is again a strong contender in giant slalom and the big favorite in slalom. Frida Hansdotter is still leading the slalom World Cup but I see her chances to win the slalom title very slim. I think she would need Shiffrin having bad races, Shiffrin is so clearly the best slalom skier on women's side.

Predictions

I am not going much against the projected standings. For men I say 1) Hirscher, 2) Jansrud, 3) Paris. For women I say 1) Maze, 2) Fenninger, 3) Vonn. I put Vonn ahead of Shiffrin because I believe she can get more than 40 points per race in super-G which is her current average.

Then to disciplines. On men's side, I say Jansrud will win both downhill and super-G and Hirscher will win both slalom and giant slalom. On women's side, I say Vonn will win the downhill and super-G titles and Shiffrin will win the slalom title. Giant slalom feels hardest to predict. I pick Fenninger, she was back in form in Kühtai.