Hirscher facing once again a Norwegian overall title challenger

The five-time defending World Cup overall champion Marcel Hirscher is again leading the standings after the first five races of the 2016-17 season. After the second place of the season-opening Sölden giant slalom, Hirscher claimed the overall lead with a dominant slalom victory at Levi. Kjetil Jansrud dominated the opening speed races of the season by winning both the super-G and the downhill in Val d'Isère, yet Hirscher remained in a tied overall points lead with a 13th place in the super-G. With a second place in the Val d'Isère giant slalom, Hirscher leads Jansrud by 80 points.

Jansrud couldn't defend last winter his 2015 discipline titles in downhill and super-G, yet this season the Norwegian has got a perfect start for his campaign in speed disciplines with two victories. Yet once again his chances to race for the overall title seem slim. Hirscher already has the advantage of a tech-favoring schedule, and besides slalom and giant slalom he can score good points in super-G. Besides the speed disciplines, Jansrud does compete in giant slalom in which he once made his World Cup breakthrough and won the Olympic silver medal in 2010. Yet the past few seasons he's been struggling to make the top 20 in giant slalom and this season he is yet to finish a GS race. That will not be enough for the overall title if Hirscher stays healthy and in form.

Jansrud's countryman Aksel Lund Svindal has been Hirscher's main rival last years, though similarly to Jansrud, giant slalom has been Svindal's weakness. Back in the 00s when he won his two overall titles, he was among the frontrunners in GS before the early 2010s change in GS skis. Last year he was leading the World Cup overall standings before suffering a season-ending knee injury in a downhill crash in Kitzbühel. Svindal was just able to make a comeback in this season's opening speed races in Val d'Isère, impressing with the second place of the super-G and the third place of the downhill. Given he is likely to improve as the season progresses, the good form in the early season keeps him in those disciplines' title contention. He didn't participate in the giant slalom, which is understandable given his poor success in that discipline the past few seasons and his limited training in the offseason, yet that very much excludes him from the overall title battle.

Last winter Alexis Pinturault had a strong second half of the season, especially in giant slalom where he finished the season in second place. This season he's been ready to race for the GS title right from the start, winning the opening race in Sölden. With a third place from Val d'Isère he shares the GS standings' lead with the defending champion Hirscher.

Pinturault has versatility to compete besides giant slalom also in slalom, super-G, and alpine combined, in all of which he is a World Cup race winner. That makes him a potential overall title contender; however in the last couple of seasons his success has come only in GS and combined. He badly needs to beat Hirscher in either super-G or slalom to have a chance for the overall title. So far this season he hasn't succeeded in that; he was 11th in the Levi slalom and didn't finish the super-G in Val d'Isère.

Pinturault isn't the only successful Frenchman in giant slalom. The Frech team claimed four spots from the top five in the Val d'Isère giant slalom. Mathieu Faivre achieved his first World Cup victory and he is sitting in third place of the GS standings, 31 points behind Pinturault and Hirscher. Thomas Fanara finished the race in fourth place, yet suffered a season-ending knee injury. However Val d'Isère's fifth, Victor Muffat-Jeandet can be expected to be one of the frontrunners in giant slalom as well as in alpine combined.

The five-time World Cup giant slalom champion Ted Ligety has struggled the past two seasons and suffered a season-ending knee injury last January. So far Ligety hasn't impressed in his comeback; he sits in sixth in the GS standings with a fifth place from Sölden and an 11th place from Val d'Isère.

Henrik Kristoffersen dominated slalom last season as he ended Hirscher's run of three consecutive World Cup slalom titles. Besides that he was third in the giant slalom standings as he finished the season as the overall runner-up. This season he missed the opening slalom of Levi due to a sponsorship dispute, putting him already 100 points behind Hirscher. In giant slalom he hasn't been able to match his results from the last season, having scored two eighth places this season.

The veteran Italian Peter Fill achieved his second career World Cup victory last January in the Hahnenkamm downhill in Kitzbühel, over seven years from his maiden victory. At the end of the season he celebrated his first World Cup title in downhill. Fill's downhill title defense got a strong start with a second place in the Val d'Isère downhill. Besides Fill the Italian team has another strong contender in speed disciplines in Dominik Paris. Also Paris made the podium in Val d'Isère as he was third in the super-G.

Boštjan Kline didn't make the podium in Val d'Isère but had solid results of fifth in the super-G and fourth in the downhill. Results like that seem promising for the former junior world champion to achieve his maiden World Cup victory this season after last season's two second places.

My review of the 2014-15 Alpine Skiing season

The 2014-15 Alpine Skiing World Cup season came to its end last weekend and now it's time to look back into the past season.

Men

Marcel Hirscher won the fourth consecutive overall World Cup title and for the first time in his career achieved the double of slalom and giant slalom World Cup titles in the same season. He was dominant in giant slalom, winning five of the eight races and missing the podium only once. In slalom he was more vulnerable, yet in the end, his final race win was enough for the slalom title. In the final weeks of the season, he had some decent super-G results. He scored points with the 17th place in Saalbach and was fourth in the final super-G in Méribel. I wonder if he does super-G more frequently next season, especially if he faces stronger opposition for the overall title.

Kjetil Jansrud was Norway's No. 1 skier as Aksel Lund Svindal missed the World Cup season because of an Achilles tendon injury. And Jansrud's season was like a copy of Svindal's last two seasons; he won both downhill and super-G World Cup titles but that wasn't enough to beat Hirscher for the overall World Cup. After a great start to the season, mediocre results mid-season cost him the chance to win the overall title. To afford missing podiums in speed disciplines, he should have a strong giant slalom like the likes of Maier and Eberharter had when winning overall titles. Instead of finishing on the 19th place of giant slalom standings, he should've been in the top 8 to beat Hirscher for the overall title. Next season his task will be even harder as the draft schedule has only 19 speed races (11 DHs & 8 SGs) as opposed to 23 technical races (10 GSs, 11 SLs, & 2 CEs). It will also be interesting to see how he can defend the downhill and super-G titles when Svindal will be back on the tour.

Alexis Pinturault finished the season on the third place of the overall World Cup, like last season. To me, it feels like he could make no progress from the last season. He has versatility needed to succeed in the overall World Cup; he can succeed in all disciplines but downhill. But to be a contender for the overall title, he needs to start winning and making podiums frequently. This season, he couldn't take a step into that direction, instead his two wins is one less than in last two seasons.

Felix Neureuther had a solid season, fourth in the overall World Cup and second in the slalom World Cup. Still, the last weeks of the season were a disappointment for him. He lost his 66-point slalom lead in slalom to Hirscher with the 9th and 12th places of the last two slaloms, being the runner-up for the third time in a row.

Hannes Reichelt was obviously the second-best skier in men's speed disciplines, World Championship gold medal in super-G, second place in the downhill World Cup, and fourth place in the super-G World Cup. He had a streak of strong downhill performances since January, including a win in Wengen to achieve the double of classic downhill wins after last year's Kitzbühel win. Before the final downhill of the season, he was only 20 points from Jansrud who dominated the early season. Still, in the final race he couldn't beat Jansrud for the downhill title.

Henrik Kristoffersen must be the biggest prospect on the tour. The junior World Champion won two slaloms this season and at the World Cup Finals he won his first giant slalom. I think he will be ready to race for the slalom World Cup title next season. In giant slalom he may need few more years for that, yet I can see him in the future as a Hirscher-style overall World Cup contender whose campaign is based on strong slalom and giant slalom.

In speed disciplines, it's harder to see potential future overall World Cup champions. Of younger speed skiers, Dominik Paris had the best season, second in the super-G and fourth in the downhill World Cup standings.  Matthias Mayer was almost as good, third in the super-G standings and tied the fourth place in downhill. I expect both of them to win discipline titles in the future but prefer Mayer's chances for the overall title as he is at least a point-scorer in giant slalom. Yet his only top 10 result is a sixth place from last year's Olympics, he would need to improve a lot to be in giant slalom top 10 all season long.

One of my fondest memories of the season is Carlo Janka having won the combined in Wengen. That was the first win for the 2009-10 overall World Cup champion in almost four years, after suffering health issues. Even nicer was it happening in his home country Switzerland. He finished the season on the 10th place of the overall World Cup, his best season after 2010-11. But he still has lots of work ahead to win crystal globes again, 11th place in super-G was his best ranking in discipline standings.

Another fond memory is Ted Ligety having won the World Championship giant slalom in Beaver Creek, the first gold medal for the host nation on the third-last day. I was really happy the greatest giant slalom skier of this decade was able to win the gold medal in home championships as he will have retired before the next Worlds or Olympics in the USA. Apart from that gold medal and the World bronze medal in combined, this was otherwise a poor season by his standards. His only win in the World Cup was also from Beaver Creek, a giant slalom in early December. For the first time after 2009, he missed the top 2 in the giant slalom standings. And after this season, his overall World Cup dream seems quite distant. He would need another strong discipline besides giant slalom, yet he made no progress in any discipline this season, rather declined.

Women

Anna Fenninger defended successfully the overall World Cup title. After winning the opening race in Sölden, the early season wasn't otherwise particuarly good for her and in January she was already over 300 points behind Tina Maze. But in her last 13 races, she missed the podium only twice and eventually won the overall World Cup by 22 points to Tina Maze. Besides the overall World Cup, she also managed to defend the giant slalom World Cup title. Winning the last three giant slaloms were decisive for both titles. In the speed disciplines, she challenged Lindsey Vonn very well for both downhill and super-G titles but couldn't quite beat her.

Tina Maze dominated the overall World Cup for the first half of the season. Her campaign was based on consistent good results in all disciplines rather than dominating few of them. For a long time, it worked well. Fenninger was mediocre in the first half of the season, Vonn doing only speed disciplines, and Shiffrin doing only technical disciplines. Once Fenninger started getting top results in giant slalom, super-G, and downhill, she started catching Maze whose form had dropped in technical disciplines. Maze got her best results in technical disciplines in weeks at the World Cup Finals but it wasn't anymore enough for her after the previous weeks' poor results.

Lindsey Vonn finished the season on the third place of the overall World Cup. That was a great season after her injuries. World Cup titles in downhill and super-G were very much all she could achieve by doing mostly speed disciplines. Fifth place in the final giant slalom gives some hope of a strong overall campaign next season but she would need those good giant slalom results frequently to challenge Fenninger who has three strong disciplines.

Mikaela Shiffrin finished the season on the fourth place of the overall World Cup. She was once again the dominant slalom skier and she also got her first giant slalom win this season. Within the next few seasons, I can see her becoming a strong contender for the giant slalom World Cup title. But if dominating technical disciplines is how Hirscher wins men's overall titles, that wouldn't work on women's side as the best speed skiers also have a strong giant slalom. For the overall title, Shiffrin must do at least super-G besides the technical disciplines. Despite some plans, she didn't debut in super-G this season but I expect her to give it a try in the future. If she could get decent super-G results, then she would have a great chance to win the overall title in the future.

2014-15 Alpine Skiing World Cup approaching the halfway

The 2014-15 Alpine Skiing season is approaching its halfway, which also means classic races: men in Adelboden, Wengen, and Kitzbühel and women in Cortina d'Ampezzo and St. Moritz. Here I review some skiers' performances this season.

Men

The men's overall World Cup is becoming a two-man race between three-time defending champion Marcel Hirscher and Kjetil Jansrud. That is like the title fights between Hirscher and Svindal in previous years, Hirscher collecting big points from the technical events and the Norwegian collecting big points from the speed events. Hirscher took the overall lead with his Zagreb slalom win and also the projected final points show he is on the way to the overall title. Of disciplines, giant slalom has been better than slalom for him this winter. The tougher competition in slalom and last years' best giant slalom skier Ted Ligety's weaker performances may have accounted for that. In giant slalom, Hirscher leads the World Cup by 74 points ahead of Ligety whereas in the slalom World Cup, he is on the second place but only four points behind the leader Felix Neureuther.

Kjetil Jansrud has been the best speed skier since last February's Olympics where he won gold in super-G and bronze in downhill. This winter he has dominated speed disciplines, four wins and only one missed podium in seven speed races. While his leads in downhill and super-G standings aren't impossible to catch, I can't see anybody with the consistency needed to beat Jansrud for those titles.

As for the overall title fight, it will be tight as long as those two equally dominate their parade disciplines. Combined races can play a big role here. Hirscher will probably do only the Kitzbühel combined as instead of downhill it has super-G. But he has a great record from SG+SL combined, always in top 5. Jansrud will probably do both Wengen and Kitzbühel but he doesn't have as good a record from combined as Hirscher has. Still, his best combined result is from last winter when he was fourth in the Olympic combined, so he has potential. Another chance for Jansrud to gain points on Hirscher is in giant slalom. Unlike Hirscher, Jansrud has a decent third discipline. He has been three times in top 15 this winter but if he could improve to top 10, it would help him. He is a skier with potential in giant slalom as seen in around 2010 when giant slalom was his best discipline and he won Olympic silver in it. Of course, also Hirscher can try to get some points from super-G but he races in super-G very seldom.

Felix Neureuther leads the slalom World Cup, despite the back problems he has had. I don't think he is as good a slalom skier as second-placed Hirscher but Neureuther has been more consistent and finished all slaloms on podium. I think this title will depend on Hirscher's form. If Hirscher can bring his best, he will inevitably win it but if he has bad races and Neureuther remains consistent, then Felix has a huge chance for the title. Giant slalom has been more difficult for him this season than last winter when he even won a giant slalom in Adelboden. But even with his current results, he is well in contention to make the podium in the overall World Cup.

One of his main contenders for the third place in the overall is his countryman Fritz Dopfer who is consistently having good results in slalom and giant slalom. But Dopfer still needs a bit something to win races. Another contender for those Germans is the speed specialist Dominik Paris. While he is yet to win a race this winter, he has four podium finishes in seven speed races. Moreover, he is still young and I expect him to win discipline titles in downhill and super-G in the future. But I can't see him ever as a contender for the overall title; he would need a third discipline in his repertoire.

Another still young skier whose results I have been pleased with is Matthias Mayer. His downhill Olympic gold seemed like a one-race wonder but the results after it are making it justified. While he is "only" sixth and fourth in downhill and super-G standings and yet to win a race this winter, his two second places show he is a real deal. He is already ready to win races as the Olympic downhill and the final downhill in Lenzerheide last year showed but he isn't yet ready to fight for the discipline World Cup titles. But in the future I can see him as a strong contender for the World Cup titles in speed disciplines. He also has some giant slalom skills as shown by the sixth place at the Olympics, so I think he could be a Jansrud-like overall title contender in the future; strong in speed disciplines, decent in giant slalom.

Ted Ligety and Alexis Pinturault are skiers often mentioned in the overall title speculations. I am losing my faith in Ligety ever winning it. This is yet another winter when he can't do much outside giant slalom. He can have some good slalom runs but finishing two slalom runs has been difficult for him this winter. He won the World Championship super-G two years ago but he doesn't seem able to be a consistent top skier in super-G. And this winter he has been having a mediocre giant slalom season by his own standards. A win and two second places isn't bad but he is already 74 points behind the leader Hirscher. He must start beating Hirscher to successfully defend his giant slalom World Cup title.

Pinturault is a skier who I think has the skills needed to win the overall World Cup. He can be a top skier in slalom, giant slalom, super-G, and combined. Who knows if he even becomes a real all-round skier doing also downhill? But he needs consistency. Giant slalom has been his best discipline this winter and he also has a podium from super-G. But he has finished only one of the four slaloms, wasting lots of points. Aside from a slim chance for the giant slalom title, his aim for the rest of the season must be just to win races and secure top 3 in the giant slalom World Cup. He is still a young skier so he has years left to battle for the overall title.

And few words about my favourite Carlo Janka. After some worse seasons, at the end of the last season, it looked like he is breaking back into the top 10. But his performances haven't really improved from last winter. Actually, his downhill results have been worse than last winter but his giant slalom has improved from the last winter; in the 7th-place finish in Beaver Creek, he had the fastest second run. The promising thing in that is that the World Championships are held on the same slope. Maybe his best chance for glory this winter will be there. Also, I am eagerly looking forward to the Wengen weekend where he has an impressive record of one win in both downhill and combined as well as a total of six podiums in 11 starts.

Women

On women's side, Tina Maze seems to be on the way to the overall title. She is consistently getting good results in all disciplines. Still, it may be hard for her to win any discipline titles as she doesn't dominate any discipline, almost all disciplines have some better skiers than her.

Last year's overall champion Anna Fenninger seems to be in trouble in her attempt to defend the title. She doesn't do slalom like Maze does plus she is ahead of Maze only in giant slalom points. Giant slalom looks like her best chance to win a World Cup title this winter. In the overall World Cup she seems to be on the way to the second place. She is currently third, behind Mikaela Shiffrin but there are lots of speed races remaining which should get her past Shiffrin, as seen in the projected standings.

Lindsey Vonn has made a great comeback. She is back dominating downhill and also doing well in super-G. The super-G points don't tell a lot yet because there has been only two races. Because of the retirement in Val-d'Isere, Vonn is only on sixth place. But her second place in Lake Louise impressed me so much that I expect her to be a contender for the title, like I expect the current points leader and last year's champion Lara Gut to be. As Vonn hasn't done technical events, she has no chance for the overall title though. Currently she is seventh but like in Fenninger's case, the speed races will bring her close to a top 3 finish.

Giant slalom looks like the most interesting title fight. The top 6 are within 100 points from the leader Eva-Maria Brem. One of those is Mikaela Shiffrin who won her first giant slalom in the first race of the season in Sölden. After that she didn't get good results in either giant slalom or even in his parade discipline slalom. But now that she has found her form, she is again a strong contender in giant slalom and the big favorite in slalom. Frida Hansdotter is still leading the slalom World Cup but I see her chances to win the slalom title very slim. I think she would need Shiffrin having bad races, Shiffrin is so clearly the best slalom skier on women's side.

Predictions

I am not going much against the projected standings. For men I say 1) Hirscher, 2) Jansrud, 3) Paris. For women I say 1) Maze, 2) Fenninger, 3) Vonn. I put Vonn ahead of Shiffrin because I believe she can get more than 40 points per race in super-G which is her current average.

Then to disciplines. On men's side, I say Jansrud will win both downhill and super-G and Hirscher will win both slalom and giant slalom. On women's side, I say Vonn will win the downhill and super-G titles and Shiffrin will win the slalom title. Giant slalom feels hardest to predict. I pick Fenninger, she was back in form in Kühtai.

A look into the 2014 Alpine Skiing World Cup Finals

The 2014 Alpine Skiing World Cup will come to its conclusion next week at the Finals in Lenzerheide, Switzerland. Both men's and women's overall World Cup titles are tight two-way battles and also five out of eight discipline titles are still open. The titles already decided are men's downhill and super-G won by Aksel Lund Svindal and women's slalom won by Mikaela Shiffrin.

Men's overall World Cup

Marcel Hirscher comes to Lenzerheide with a lead of only four points to Aksel Lund Svindal. Neither skier seems to be at their very best at the moment. The Olympics did not go too well for either of them, both of them were even gold medal favorites but the only medal for those two was Hirscher's silver in slalom. They were also unable to reach podium in the post-Olympics races in Kvitfjell and Kranjska Gora. I made some calculations based on their three last races in each discipline. I calculated their average points scores from those three races. (I also gave points to the Olympic races with the World Cup system) Here are the projected final points based on those averages.

Hirscher: 1050 (current) + 60 (GS) + 68 (SL) = 1178 (projected)
Svindal: 1046 (current) + 45 (DH) + 49 (SG) = 1140 (projected)

Svindal's points average for giant slalom would be 12 points, equaling a 19th-place finish. But only fifteen best skiers get points in the final races so I did not include that to the projected points.

So, I believe Hirscher will be able to get slightly more points from the technical events as Svindal in the speed events. But you cannot count out the possibility of Svindal winning both speed events, which would require Hirscher winning both technical events. And in that case, a points finish in giant slalom would be enough for Svindal to secure the overall World Cup title.

Weather can also play a role in the World Cup finals as cancelled final races will not be rescheduled. In the last two times when Lenzerheide hosted the Finals, they had to cancel half of the individual races because of the weather. Speed events are more likely to get cancelled than technical events, so that may turn the fight in favor of Hirscher.

The race for the third place is very much between Alexis Pinturault and Ted Ligety. Pinturault is ahead of Ligety by 75 points. Given Ligety's poor form outside giant slalom, I believe Pinturault can stay ahead unless he fails to score any points in the finals. Kjetil Jansrud is 216 points behind Pinturault and is in a great form in speed events. But to pass Pinturault, he should have a good result also in giant slalom which is very unlikely given his bad giant slalom form.

Men's giant slalom World Cup

Ted Ligety has been the most impressive giant slalom skier this season, yet surprisingly he is not leading the giant slalom World Cup standings. He had three weaker races in the mid-winter where he had one third place and two retirements. The giant slalom leader Marcel Hirscher has been more consistent and has missed the podium only once, in the last race in Kranjska Gora. If Hirscher has a podium result in Lenzerheide, then he will win the giant slalom title, no matter how Ligety performs. But there is some chance for Ligety, Hirscher was fourth in Kranjsjka Gora and also in the Olympic giant slalom before that.

Men's slalom World Cup

The slalom World Cup is a three-way battle with Felix Neureuther leading Marcel Hirscher by five points and Henrik Kristoffersen by forty points. Kristoffersen's chances are quite slim, to win the slalom title, Hirscher should be third and Neureuther fourth at best. Still, he has been the most consistent of these three skiers recently, including World Cup and Olympic races; he has a four-race podium streak. But he is the outsider in this battle; Neureuther and Hirscher should not lose their points lead over him.

Hirscher has finished all slalom races since January; Neureuther has retired in Adelboden and at the Olympics. But in the five slaloms he has finished since January, he has finished four times ahead of Hirscher. Ultimately, I think Hirscher is a better slalom skier than Neureuther and he has been more consistent. But I think Neureuther has a better form and I think he will beat Hirscher once again if he finishes. That's why he is my pick for the slalom title.

Women's overall World Cup

Women's overall World Cup is a two-way battle between Maria Höfl-Riesch and Anna Fenninger with Höfl-Riesch having a lead of 29 points. I made similar calculations based on their recent performances as with men:

Fenninger: 1151 (current) + 42 (DH) + 59 (SG) + 93 (GS) = 1345 (projected)
Höfl-Riesch: 1180 (current) + 33 (DH) + 73 (SG) + 31 (SL) + 17 (GS) = 1335 (projected)

Höfl-Riesch has usually been a better downhill skier but in the recent races Fenninger has been better. In super-G there is not so big a difference between these skiers. Höfl-Riesch can get some lead over Fenninger in slalom but to win the overall title, she needs a big lead before the final race that is giant slalom. Giant slalom is Höfl-Riesch's worst discipline whereas Fenninger has won the last three World Cup giant slaloms and was the silver medalist in the Olympic giant slalom.

Tina Weirather is currently on the third place but she is out because of an injury. That was a very unfortunate injury; she missed the Olympics and was in a position to fight for the World Cup titles, even for the overall World Cup. That's why Tina Maze and Lara Gut are likely to pass her in the overall standings. Maze is leading Gut by 32 points and I believe she will finish the season third. Gut seems to be better in super-G but Maze is better in downhill and slightly in giant slalom plus she does slalom unlike Gut.

Women's downhill World Cup

Also women's downhill World Cup will be decided between Höfl-Riesch and Fenninger. Höfl-Riesch has a lead of 80 points and will have more downhill wins than Fenninger, so Fenninger needs to win the final race and in that case Höfl-Riesch needs the twenty points of the 13th place which would be her worst downhill of the season. So Fenninger's task seems almost impossible. If Höfl-Riesch somehow lost this title, I think it would be a huge blow for her overall title chances as it would mean a lead of at least 50 points for Fenninger with three races to go.

Women's super-G World Cup

Lara Gut is leading the standings ahead of injured Tina Weirather but third-placed Anna Fenninger is 71 points behind Gut and has a chance for the title. But this title is almost as difficult for her to win as the downhill title, to have any chance, she needs to finish in the top 2 and even if she won, the 29 points of the 9th place would be enough for Gut.

Women's giant slalom World Cup

The giant slalom title will be decided between Jessica Lindell-Vikarby and Anna Fenninger. Lindell-Vikarby had a great early season and is leading by 14 points ahead of Fenninger who has been excellent in the last giant slalom races. A win means automatically the title for Fenninger and even if she finishes second, Lindell-Vikarby must win the race. Of the discipline titles, this seems like the easiest for her to win.

Giant slalom being the final race of women’s season may have its effect on the outcome of the giant slalom title. If Fenninger needs a safe run for the overall title, she may not be willing to take risks for the giant slalom title.

So it seems like an interesting final week for the season. Let's hope the weather will permit all races in good and fair conditions, and cancellations will not decide any titles.

Projected 2013/2014 Alpine Skiing World Cup final standings

Soon we will have about one third of the Alpine Skiing World Cup season over, and we can see which skiers are really in the battle for the World Cup titles. But the unequal number of races for each discipline doesn't mean the current leader is the true favourite for the title. Last year, Aksel Lund Svindal had a great early season and was leading the standings, but in the end, Marcel Hirscher won the World Cup. Svindal's second half of last season was not as spectacular as his early season, but also the high number of technical events in the second half helped Hirscher to catch Svindal.

Right now, for both men and women, the discipline with most races left is slalom and the discipline with least races left (excluding combined) is super-G. To take that into account, I made projected final standings where the unequal number of races in each discipline is taken into account. For this ranking, I counted skiers' average points this season in each discipline and multiplied them with the number of races in that discipline. For combined, I used last season's points as there has been no combined races this season.

I begin with women's standings as it seems more interesting.

Click to enlarge.

Lara Gut has had a great early season. But her best discipline is super-G. Maria Höfl-Riesch, on the other hand, is better than Gut in downhill and slalom, the two disciplines with most races. In general, the early season has had many speed events, and that's why e.g. Tina Maze should gain positions later in the season when there are more technical events.

Then, let's have a look at men's standings.

Click to enlarge.

The men's season has started quite similarly to last season, Svindal is great in speed events, Ligety great in giant slalom, and Hirscher dominates slalom plus is fastest after Ligety in giant slalom. Last winter, it was still quite soon obvious that Hirscher's almost constant top-2 finishes in technical events would be enough to pass Svindal later in the season. And despite these projected standings, I believe that will happen also this year. Svindal has not been as great as he was last year. And Hirscher not scoring points in the slalom in Val-d'Isère brought his average score from slalom down to 50 points. That is probably less than what it will be at the end of the season. If he can lift his points average from slalom over 70 points, then he should win the World Cup. That would require finishing most slaloms in top-2, which has been almost routine for him in the last two seasons.

Ted Ligety won three gold medals at the World Championships last winter. One could say that the man with three gold medals should be the favourite for the overall World Cup. Unfortunately for Ligety, his best disciplines are the ones with least races. And despite the World Championship, Ligety has only one podium finish in super-G in World Cup races. Also, not scoring points in three races so far is too much. In the projected final standings, he is even below the slalom-specialist Mario Matt. But it would be a wonder if Matt finished the season on the third place, I can't see him keeping up his 90-point average per race in slalom. 60-point average would seem realistic which would mean a top-6 result in the overall World Cup. But even if Ligety finished his season ahead of Matt, I am not sure if it were enough for a top-3 position in the overall World Cup. Hannes Reichelt, currently on the 5th position, should be able to come very close to Ligety in the overall standings.

I will be posting new projected final standings later during the season. Then there will have been more races and the points averages from each discipline tell more about the skiers true form for this season.